Author Topic: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit  (Read 2727 times)

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Justin NoCal

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Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« on: June 25, 2014, 03:15:22 pm »
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101787838

Quote
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy's worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.

While the economy's woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather. Growth has now been revised down by a total of 3.0 percentage points since the government's first estimate was published in April, which had the economy expanding at a 0.1 percent rate.

That's some pretty epoch growth, "folks"
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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2014, 03:29:39 pm »
Free healthcare  :lol
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Jeremy in Richmond

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2014, 05:43:51 pm »
Maybe the Dino's ate the global warming.

Snakeeyes

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2014, 06:02:01 pm »
That is a very nuanced statement on the topic, Jeremy.  ;; ; ;;;
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Learjet89

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2014, 10:21:29 pm »
What the ETA has become:

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Jeff in MD

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2014, 11:34:23 pm »
http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2014/06/25/u-s-gdp-dropped-2-9-in-the-first-quarter-2014-sharply-lower-from-second-estimate/

Quote
“The bad weather in much of the U.S. in early 2014 was a significant drag on the economy, disrupting production, construction, and shipments, and deterring home and auto sales,” wrote PNC Senior Economist Gus Faucher in a note out prior to the release. “But data show growth rebounding in the second quarter, with improvements in home and auto sales and residential construction.”

The major stock indices slipped into the red as the opening bell approached but quickly returned to positive territory. This seems to indicate that investors were also writing off the contraction as temporary.
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Q in San Marcos

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2014, 02:01:59 am »
:lol Obozo
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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2014, 08:24:31 am »
so if 2nd Q comes in low, theyll blame the unusually nice weather on it? :lol
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John in Nashville

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2014, 08:35:46 am »
Stock market doesn't seem concerned.
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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2014, 08:52:02 am »
Stock market doesn't seem concerned.

stock market doesnt seem to be a very good predictor of crashes /s/ 1999 tech bust, 2007 housing bust etc etc
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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2014, 09:35:30 am »
http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2014/06/25/u-s-gdp-dropped-2-9-in-the-first-quarter-2014-sharply-lower-from-second-estimate/

Rueters has a different take.

Quote
This time the news is bad across the board. Exports dropped 8.9% in Q1, a huge drop from 2013, which wasn’t exactly spectacular either. Real final sales of domestic product dropped 1.3%, where in earlier estimates it had remained in positive territory. Business investment also fell:

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 5.7 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 7.7 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.8 percent. Equipment decreased 2.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 10.9 percent. Intellectual property products increased 6.3 percent, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 4.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.9 percent.

Reuters noted immediately that this is not just weather-related:

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy’s worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.

While the economy’s woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather. Growth has now been revised down by a total of 3.0 percentage points since the government’s first estimate was published in April, which had the economy expanding at a 0.1 percent rate.

The difference between the second and third estimates was the largest on records going back to 1976, the Commerce Department said.

Underscoring that is the May durable-goods report, which showed a contraction of 1.0% despite having a month of mild-to-good weather:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $2.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $238.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.8 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $2.3 billion or 3.0 percent to $74.4 billion.

Again, business investment signals even rougher times ahead:

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in May decreased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $82.1 billion. Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $75.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $662.7 billion. Inventories increased $2.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $181.7 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in May decreased $4.0 billion or 31.4 percent to $8.8 billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $9.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $158.9 billion. Inventories increased slightly or 0.1 percent to $23.6 billion.

This comes as Barack Obama planned yet another “pivot” to the economy, in the hopes of distracting from bad news in foreign policy and at the VA and IRS. The previously poor Q1 results already had the White House on the defensive, which they tried to brush off as weather-related and anomalous. Clearly, neither is the case. The economy has run aground on Obama’s own policies, and we’ll be lucky to hit positive growth at all this year with the bad Q1 number looming over everything. That calls into question all of Obama’s budget projections, which were based on irrationally sunny projections of economic growth this year and the next few years.
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John in Nashville

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2014, 09:41:44 am »
stock market doesnt seem to be a very good predictor of crashes /s/ 1999 tech bust, 2007 housing bust etc etc

And why do you think the market crashed in those instances? Its a leading indicator.
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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2014, 09:47:47 am »
And why do you think the market crashed in those instances? Its a leading indicator.

Its thought to be, but is it really?

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Moodell

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2014, 09:58:37 am »
"Tell a lie often enough and people will believe it is the truth" ~ Barack Goebbles
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Justin NoCal

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Re: Thanks a lot, Bush. I mean cold weather I mean ahfvckit
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2014, 10:09:19 am »
And why do you think the market crashed in those instances? Its a leading indicator.

It's scary to think that you do stuff like play with people's monies for a living.
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